Early Prediction: – Liberal Minority
As much as I dislike being pressed to make election predictions, I was asked so many times by friends and family over the weekend how I thought the Ontario election would go, that I might as well share my early sense with you here as well – and no, it is not a bias assessment but rather a gut feel at this stage of the campaign backed by some polling info, personal observation and some street level feed back from a broad network of contacts.
My sense is that we are more likely to end up with a Liberal minority government than a majority for either side. Although dynamics can change dramatically between now and election day, what seems to me to be the case so far is that, although the two term Liberal government (not surprisingly) is not being wildly celebrated by most people as deserving of re-election (2nd term governments rarely are), the Tory alternative, and it’s leader in particular, are underwhelming those who would otherwise withhold a re-election vote for the Liberals.
Even though the Conservative “Change book” is chalk full o f itemized policy ideas that attempt to distinguish the party from the Liberals, there really isn’t enough of a perceived difference to be polarizing public opinion. Nor has Tim Hudak emerged as a compelling, carbonated or big idea alternative – at least not yet. Hudak’s underwhelming personality may be why the latest Nanos research poll, as of today, still registers Dalton McGuinty as the leader most favoured as Premier, even though the Tory’s lead slightly in the horse race by about 4 points. I’ve also seen Dalton on the campaign trail in the past and yes, he’s very good at the game.
Surely, the Conservative current that swept Stephen Harper and Rob Ford into strong, stable mandates is flowing through Ontario as well, but I don’t think it is strong enough to completely wash over the Liberal government. I think it will swirl around between now and election day unless Tim Hudack is able to transform into a more compelling character. So, for what it’s worth, my gut tells me the 2nd term McGuinty government will be punished , but not overwhelmingly so – leaving a Minority liberal government in place.