Re-post of political predictions made on Last day of 2010
My political predictions for 2011
Well, as we know, a week is a long time in politics, where anything can happen to change the dynamic, but here’s how I see things shaping up in 2011 as we break for Christmas.
Based on the way Rob Ford has charged into his new job as mayor of Toronto, I sense he will continue being a “stone in shoe” of city staff, union leaders and left leaning members of council into the new year. his legacy to the city will be as a “change agent,” and that most of his new found political capital will be used up over the next 12-18 months, resulting in a 2012 city budget and collective agreements with city unions that will bear his and his brothers signature. I think the Ford honeymoon will be well over by the middle of 2012 and that his further value to the city will be limited.
I also think that Ford will be a significant factor in next year’s provincial election. He has the McGuinty government in a good place at the moment when it comes to extracting benefits for Toronto. His political personality (not unlike Mel Lastman’s), will be to publicly and loudly reveal any resistance he encounters from Queen’s Park and to urge election retaliation by the voters of Toronto. I sense Ford will endorse and lend his political family organizational muscle to some Conservative candidates running in the GTA, including possible candidates like Rocco Rossi, who is looking for a political home at the moment. Rossi remains somewhat disappointed that McGuinty’s Liberal door was closed to him during the mayoral race in favour of George Smitherman, so could return to his early Conservative roots to help the Tory’s try to kick McGuinty to the curb by running for an Etobicoke seat with Ford’s help.
I think the McGuinty government is very vulnerable to election loss because of the HST and a general sense that after two terms in power, it has lost touch and has become insensitive or unaware of the economic burden the average person lives under in Ontario. The HST is a killer expense. I don’t think the McGuinty Liberals were or are aware of how angry people are that it was triggered. Unlike in British Columbia, where recall legislation gave voice to the public backlash, the Ontario government has not yet felt the full force of the hurricane like blowback that I think will confront them at election time. I think they would definitely lose the election if the opposition Conservatives had a stronger or more well-known and well-defined leader. My prediction is that the Liberals in Ontario will end up with a minority government because the Conservative alternative is undefined.
On the federal scene, I think we will have and election in late spring/early summer, but not for the right reasons. I think Liberal Leader Micheal Ignatieff will try to trigger an election, not because the country needs one, but because he and his party need one to get on with the rest of their lives. You may remember that it was at this time last year during pre-Christmas holiday gatherings that the Liberal leader caught wind of sub-surface whispers that his caucus wished there was a way to replace him or that he would step down himself. He lashed out at the Toronto Star journalist who chose to write about the liberal mood before taking off to Europe to spend Christmas with his wife’s family. Not much has changed since last year at this time, except that Iggie spent the summer travelling the country in preparation for the next election.
No Liberal leader has stepped down or been thrown out by the party until they fight at least one election, so it is time for Iggie to be tested. A victory makes him prime minister. A loss gives him an exit path onto a new senior role in life and clears the way for a leadership race, which would likely put Bob Rae in the leader’s office.
I think the Harper Conservatives will win another minority government if we do go to the polls in 2011.
That’s it that’s all for and from me this year. I am now officially off the grid until the new year. Hope you have a peaceful holiday season. Talk to you in the new year