Will she or won’t she ?
Olivia Chow is the only person on the planet right now who can ensure Rob Ford is NOT re-elected. Not by brain storming another lame ” take down” message or cracking a policy code that will fill her boots with enough public support to beat him, but by dropping out of the race right now.
Based on the most recent polling numbers from Forum research, Chow’s prospects of winning are shrinking, not growing. The Poll points out that her support in Scarborough has collapsed from a high in July of 31% to only 9% this week. She may pick up a portion of David Soknaki’s almost insignificant 6% support now that he’s decided to withdraw from the race, but it is unlikely she’ll be able to do or say anything to harness much more momentum between now and election day. Her base is what it is right now. They know her, they like her and they agree with her policy plans and vision of a more caring Toronto. Those who don’t support her by now have already decided why and are unlikely to change their mind.
Forum Pollster Lorne Bozinoff told me this morning that he included a hypothetical question in his most recent survey about who Chow’s supporters would rally around as second choice if she was not in the race and found that virtually all of them would get behind John Tory as opposed to Rob Ford, giving Tory a landslide victory with 57% of public support to Ford’s 30 %
What a struggle it must be for Olivia Chow to confront the option of dropping out, but if her main reason for running was to get rid of Rob Ford, she could do that right here, right now.
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