Something’s happening here, what it is ain’t exactly clear
Byelection results always serve as fodder for future predictions but rarely resonate equally with all political pundits or parties. Incumbents, if they lose or end up with less support than in general elections are always quick to characterize the result as general voter malaise or anger that is registered as a protest vote without fear of upsetting the whole applecart. Challengers who win who realize gains are always quick to characterize the byelection result as a sign of things to come in the next general election. Both characterizations are valid and clearly one side or the other is eventually going to be right. But somethings happening here in the GTA, based on the result in Whitby-Oshawa and what it is ain’t exactly clear. The victory in the late Jim Flaherty’s riding by former Whitby Mayor Pat Perkins does not come as a surprise because the former finance minister was considered one of the best, most effective and committed Conservative MP’s in history, and Perkins is a well respected civic leader. What is surprising, is that despite the reverence for Flaherty and the Conservative values of Stephen Harper, The Liberals led by Justin Trudeau were able to triple their share of the vote from 14% in the last election to 42% in this byelection. If they were able to achieve that kind of increased support in the riding of the Country’s most revered former finance minister, it stands to reason that many GTA seats currently held by less popular or accomplished Tory candidates will be vulnerable in next years general election.